Navegando por Autor "Souto, Keynis Cândido de"

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Alteração na política de concessão do seguro-desemprego e taxa de rotatividade no mercado de trabalho
(2022-05-30) Montenegro Junior, José Luciano Rocha; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9886199268863825
The turnover rate is understood as the rate of dismissal of workers in companies, this situation occurs with the dismissal of the worker. In this condition of dispensation, Brazil has implemented, since 1986, a benefit called unemployment insurance, which is intended to ensure the worker a financial support for a period. However, access to this benefit was modified by Law nº 13.134 of 2015. Thus, this work aims to analyze changes in the turnover rate that occurred due to the legal change, which changed the rules of unemployment insurance. The analysis was made considering two periods, the first from 2010 to 2015, before the Law and, the second corresponds 2016 to 2019, relative to the period after the change. For the calculation of the Turnover Rate (RT), two methodologies were used, the proposal by Orellano and Pazello (2006) and that of Filho and Santos (2013). The results of the research allow us to conclude that after the new legislation, turnover rates fell, both in Brazil and in the State of Pernambuco.
Crédito, endividamento e inadimplência das famílias pernambucanas: uma análise para o período de 2003 a 2020
(2021-07-23) Souza, Natália Carneiro de; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8495909846804585
This work aims to analyze the evolution of credit and its effects in relation to indebtedness, default, GDP and consumption of Pernambuco families in the period from 2003 to 2020. The literature shows that credit expansion, in addition to stimulating consumption and income positively, increases indebtedness and, in the long run, can lead to default when combined with an unfavorable economic situation. The period analyzed comprises a phase of economic growth with significant credit expansion and increased indebtedness (2003-2010) followed by a phase of moderate credit growth and political and economic crises, which ended up preventing the economy from maintaining a positive growth trajectory . In 2020, when the state economy was expected to return to a favorable situation and recover, the economy was surprised by the new coronavirus pandemic, which strongly affects Brazil and Pernambuco. Based on this context, a scientific, bibliographical and descriptive research was carried out, and, based on the analysis of secondary data, obtained indirectly, it can be concluded that: in the period from 2003 to 2010, there was a significant increase in credit for the Pernambuco families. This credit increase stimulated consumption and GDP, increased household indebtedness, but did not negatively impact the delinquency rate, which had a downward trajectory. In the second period, 2011 to 2020, credit expansion was smaller, but the level of indebtedness of families was high due to the previous phase. In the context of uncertainties generated by the economic crisis, political instability and pandemic crisis, credit was not enough to stimulate consumption, affecting the performance of the state's GDP, but these factors did not lead to an increase in default, which remained at rates lower than those observed in the previous period.
Desindustrialização brasileira entre 1998 a 2018: uma análise empírica
(2021-12-17) Souza, Rafael Lima de; Oliveira, Isabel Cristina Pereira de; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4745142041015422
Deindustrialization is one of the stages of a nation’s economic development progress, that is, by reaching a specific level of per capita income and economic maturity that includes good productivity and reasonable infrastructure, the deindustrialization has positive aspects. However, when deindustrialization occurs before these events, it will have negative effects on the country’s economy. Deindustrialization has an assertive effect on the industrial sector, with industrial employment, industrial product and the income-elasticity of demand for industrial products being elements that can demonstrate such a process, in addition to the income-elasticity of demand for services. The research seeks to analyze factors that may evidence a deindustrialization process in Brazil from 1998 to 2018. In this research, evidences of deindustrialization were analyzed through econometric models, observing industrial employment, industrial product and income-elasticity of demand for industrial products and services. The conclusion is that even with shocks in the analyzed time series, there is no evidence of deindustrialization between 1998 and 2018.
Discriminação no mercado de trabalho brasileiro: uma análise comparativa entre o Nordeste e o Sudeste para o ano de 2018
(2019) Silva, Rony Ramos Cavalcanti da; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0005660374231865
The equality between people is a central theme for society and has been a constant theme of debates andstudies in order to make lifein society more equitable.Among the forums in which this topic has benrelevant, is the labor market. Since Becker (1957) established a microeconomic foundation, the study of discrimination has played an important role in the labor economy. This study aims to identify discrimination in the formal labor market by sex and race in the northeast and southeast in the year 2018.Using the data of the continuous PNAD and methodology OLS,the individual wage equations were estimated and, from these estimates, was carried out the decomposition of Oaxaca. The results point to evidence of wage discrimination for women and non-white people, as well as for stronger discrimination when it comes to non-white women.In addition, also point out that discrimination in the Southeast is more intense than in the Northeast.
O efeito dos programas de transferência de renda na economia dos municípios pernambucanos: uma análise para o período 2006-2014
(2023-05-03) Pereira, Mizael da Silva; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0220927675452410
In 2004, the “Bolsa Família” program was launched in Brazil, which, together with the “Benefício de Prestação Continuada [1993]”, represent the main Brazilian income transfer programs. From the 2000s, these programs were the subject of relevant research productions that sought to assess their impacts on various dimensions of the lives of families, individuals benefited, and the economy as a whole (national and city). The investigation of the relationship between these two programs and the formal labor market, family income, and the income of the municipalities of Pernambuco constitute the main objective of this work.. Using the panel data methodology, where individuals were the 185 municipalities of Pernambuco, observed in the period from 2006 to 2014, three equations were estimated with the objective of testing the hypothesis of the association of income transfer programs with employment, family income and the GDP of municipalities. The results indicate a positive effect of the PBF on the variables employment, household income, and municipal GDP, but the BPC, when considering the number of beneficiaries, has an effect only on household income.
A evolução do agronegócio brasileiro no período de 2010 a 2018
(2019) Câmara, Rodrigo Dornelas; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348
From 2010 to 2018, there were political, economic and climatic crises that impacted the country's growth and agribusiness. In this context, the main objective of this paper is to analyze the behavior of agribusiness during this period with emphasis on the participation of GDP-Agro in GDP-BR; the participation of the agribusiness trade balancein the Brazilian BC; and the labor market behavior of the sector in relation to Brazil. Secondary data were obtained from public and private agencies, available on their websites and from scientific articles already published and available in libraries. The results show that in 2016, agribusiness accounted for 19.06% of Gross Domestic Product, had 43% of the Trade Balance and its share of the Labor Market was 20.86%. In 2018, agribusiness was responsible for 21.14% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with a reduction in the balance of trade, reaching 42.4%, and also a reduction in its participation in the Labor Market for 19.55%. The results allow us to conclude that, despite the crises and climate factors that plagued agribusiness in this period, the sector had an improvement in its share of GDP, and its share of the labor market and trade balance had a slight reduction, but it was not. Big impact. Therefore it can be considered that during the study period, agribusiness remained stable, considering the data analyzed.
Formação bruta de capital fixo no Nordeste: análise dos efeitos crownding-in e crowding-out de 1995 a 2018
(2021-07-23) Siqueira, Kássio Alves; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4436640156031801
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between public and private investment in the Northeast from 1995 to 2018, specifically whether this relationship was one of complementarity or substitution. This was done in three steps. First, a proxy was developed for Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in the Northeast, for the public and private sectors, and for the selected economic sectors, Agriculture, Industry, Civil Construction and Services, with the objective of creating a series of regional GFCF to be used in the empirical analysis of the determinants of private investment in the Northeast region. In the second stage, based on the economic debate on the determinants of investment, from the main Classical, Neoclassical and Keynesian schools of thought, the model variables were defined, being chosen as determinants of private investment, public investment, GDP, instability index , long-term real interest rate and real exchange rate. Finally, an econometric analysis was performed using the Panel Data methodology and estimators. The results allow us to suggest a crowding-out effect in the Northeast during the analyzed period. When analyzing the relationship in the model with sectorial dummies, the results also suggest the existence of a significant crowding-out effect and in different magnitudes for the sectors of Agriculture, Civil Construction and Industry.
Inovações no mercado de crédito e inclusão financeira: uma análise dos efeitos econômicos nos estados do Nordeste
(2025-08-12) Silva, Thales Humberto Sena da; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348
O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar se as inovações no mercado de crédito resultaram em maior inclusão financeira e melhora nos indicadores econômicos dos estados do Nordeste entre 2010 e 2021. A literatura destaca que a inclusão financeira consiste no acesso efetivo, uso e qualidade de serviços financeiros adequados às necessidades da população, especialmente para grupos vulneráveis, a custos acessíveis. Seu papel no desenvolvimento econômico é amplamente reconhecido, pois favorece o investimento, a proteção contra riscos e o consumo sustentável. Historicamente, o conceito evoluiu para abarcar a cidadania financeira, que inclui educação financeira, proteção ao consumidor e participação social. No Brasil, o Banco Central adotou diversas medidas regulatórias para ampliar a capilaridade dos serviços, como a regulamentação de cooperativas de crédito, correspondentes bancários, fintechs e bancos digitais, além de inovações como o cadastro positivo e o open banking. Essas ações buscam aumentar a concorrência, reduzir barreiras ao crédito e promover inclusão, com reflexos no crescimento econômico e na redução de desigualdades. Contudo, estudos alertam que o maior acesso ao crédito deve vir acompanhado de educação financeira, para evitar endividamento excessivo e inadimplência. A pesquisa caracteriza-se como bibliográfica e descritiva. A análise dos dados foi feita em uma abordagem mista, utilizando dados quantitativos e análise qualitativa a partir de dados secundários. Os resultados mostram que os estados do Nordeste tiveram avanço em seus índices de inclusão financeira, porém em ritmos diferentes, onde os postos de atendimentos e correspondentes bancários tiveram o papel fundamental nessa inclusão. Entre 2010 e 2021, a inclusão financeira no Nordeste apresentou avanços significativos nas dimensões de acesso, elevando a taxa de bancarização de 49% para 75%, impulsionada pela expansão de canais físicos e meios eletrônicos. Contudo, a razão crédito/PIB recuou, indicando que o crescimento econômico não foi acompanhado na mesma proporção pela ampliação do crédito. Embora todos os estados tenham registrado aumento no Índice de Inclusão Financeira, a relação com o desempenho econômico e social variou, sendo o Piauí o destaque positivo. O endividamento, sobretudo por cartão de crédito, cresceu, mas sem padrão uniforme com a inadimplência, evidenciando a importância da educação financeira para uso responsável do crédito.
O Novo Desenvolvimentismo como estratégia de promoção do crescimento econômico no Brasil no período de 2003 a 2013
(2021-12-17) Maia, Pedro Henrique Temoteo de Araujo; Souto, Keynis Cândido de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0393274407907348
In 2003, New Developmentalism emerged as a third alternative economic strategy for promoting growth, critical of development policies that were based on Classical Developmentalism and Conventional Orthodoxy. The failure of Classical Orthodoxy policies in the 1990s in Latin America led to the rise of leftist governments in the region, resulting in Brazil's election of President Lula. From then on, the literature on the subject goes on to state that some of the measures defended by the New Developmentalism were adopted by the Lula government. The main objective of this paper is to discuss whether New Developmentalism was used as a strategy to promote economic growth in Brazil in the period 2003-2013, which comprises three presidential terms, first (2003-2006) and second (2007-2010) Lula, and part of the first Dilma administration (2011-2013), and which was marked by a robust economic growth of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product. Having as its main theoretical foundation the New Developmentalist Theory, the work sought to analyze and discuss characteristics of New Developmentalism in the period in question, focusing specifically on monetary policy, interest rate conduction and its effect on inflation, and in the conduction of exchange rate and its effect on the “Dutch Disease” problem. Furthermore, it sought to identify the main problems in implementing the policies proposed by the new developmentalist strategy. Based on the results, it was possible to conclude that: the addition of new developmentalist policies in the first Lula administration does not allow us to characterize it as a purist of the new model. The first Lula government (2003-2006) was initially marked by the maintenance of the neoliberal policy of the predecessor government and dealt with a high international demand for commodities, high interest rates and exchange rate appreciation. In the second Lula government (2007-2010) there was an expansion of policies to encourage domestic consumption and a growth model opposed to export-led. The third term, corresponding to part of the first Dilma Rousseff government (2011-2013), established a political agenda that favored Brazilian industrial entrepreneurs, promoted a weak exchange rate devaluation and a drop in interest rates. It was evident that in none of the governments of the period the Dutch Disease was fought.